Friday February 3, 2017
Predicted 4-Park Crowd Level: 6.
Sum of Predicted 4-Park Average Wait Times: 123 minutes.
Actual 4-Park Crowd Level: 5.
Sum of Actual 4-Park Average Wait Times: 98 minutes* (thanks to Studios coming in 19 minutes under expected).
Weather: High of 81 and low of 57. A warm, clear, sunny day.
Animal Kingdom was expected to come in at 26 minutes and ended up at 24 minutes. Despite long afternoon waits between 10:30am and 4pm, the first hour in the morning and the period after 4:30pm are reliably less crowded. That may be less true in about three months time.
Epcot also came in a couple of minutes short – 21 predicted compared to 24 realized, thanks in part to 100% uptime at every attraction. Test Track still hits 90 minutes in the afternoon, but this remains a doable day with what should be below average waits on the year.
Hollywood Studios was the big “miss” for the day with the actual average wait coming in nearly half of expected, thanks to 100% uptime at the attractions and what looks to be improved capacity at Star Tours and Great Movie Ride with the elevated attendance predictions. But as I’ve mentioned before, the Studios’ has higher wait times built into the predictions based on presumed downtime. If we assumed better uptime, the predictions would be just as “inaccurate” in the other direction. Actual attendance was within 10% of what was predicted, so the low wait time isn’t really indicative of far fewer people in the Park.
Magic Kingdom’s 30-minute average wait was just one minute shorter than expected and should be right around average for the year. The 8am-9am hour also offers a good idea about what wait times are like during the morning Extra Magic Hour and what it means for wait times as they build heading into the afternoon.
While it appeared like crowds would be somewhat even between Friday and Saturday, Fridays waits/crowds turned out to be lower than predicted while Saturdays were much higher. We’ll see what that means next.