Walt Disney World Wait Times and News for 11/13/2020

You can pull up the previous day here.

The News

Disney announced their fourth quarter and full year earnings on Thursday. Both ended on October 3rd, 2020, so the numbers don’t take into account the last month. The following is/are true:

• Quarterly revenue in the “Parks, Experiences, and Products” segment decreased 61% to $2.58 billion. Total revenue was down 23.1% from the same quarter last year to 14.71 billion. For the year, revenue across all segments was down just 6% to 65.4 billion. Considering the state of the economy over the last eight months, the last number doesn’t sound terrible, even if much of the increase in cash flow came from Disney+, which couldn’t have come out at a better time.
• Disney formally acknowledged that they had increased theme park capacity up to 35%, from up to 25%, with no indication as to when that increase first occurred, and whether or not it was in one swoop or a slow ramp up over the preceding months.
• They don’t expect Disneyland to open in 2020. The company was not happy about this. Disneyland Paris will also remain closed into 2021.
• Disney+ achieved 73.7 million subscribers in its first year. Chapek referred to it as the “wind in the sails,” as the number already beat was within their internal five-year growth target before even launching in much of Latin America and parts of Asia and Eastern Europe. Hulu and ESPN+ numbers were also strong, at 36.6 million, and 10.3 million, respectively.
• There is a big investor day coming up on December 10th, when the company should announce additional strategic moves.
• You can describe the termination of 40,000+ employees as “cost resizing.”
• Shares were up about 2% Friday to $138, with with most analysts agreeing that there is significant upside to the streaming service and maintaining positivity about the company’s overall resilience given current market conditions. Price targets are as high as $170, which would be a 23% increase above the current price. Dissenting analysts pointed to Disney foregoing their second semi-annual dividend payment in a row as negative. There’s also concern that the Disney+ subscriber number will be negatively impacted by a loss of one-time promotions and the unfurling of bundles. Disney is expected to invest heavily in streaming and its direct-to-consumer business moving forward. Shares were up as much as 6% after-hours on Thursday before the announcement of the dividend cut pushed shares lower.
• Disney expects the net adverse effects of COVID-19 to cost the company “about one billion” in fiscal 2021. They estimated the disease cost the company 2.4 billion just in the Parks segment in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2020. That sounds a little optimistic to me, but we’ll hope for the best for everyone’s sake.

Each one of these bullet points is probably worth considering in further detail. I could make a joke about how 73.6 of the 73.7 million Disney+ subscribers were unaware that the service wasn’t just called “The Mandalorian.” But I spent more time considering late stage capitalism on the couch than it would take to expand on any of the announcements here. I will see you at “The Purge” – Season Two now streaming on Hulu. You’ll know it’s me because I’ll have picked up one of my Ankole-Watusi cattle from Kilimanjaro Safaris and will be riding it into battle while wearing my suit of armor that I bought in the United Kingdom Pavilion at Epcot. It’s only about 1.5 sizes too small.

In addition to Harambe Market reopening on Saturday, the Affection Section portion of Rafiki’s Planet Watch will follow on Sunday. The latter is expected to operate daily from 9:30am to 5pm, while the quick service’s operation remains relegated to Saturdays and Sundays. You have to add that theoretical capacity somewhere, even if each additional person you admit gets in line in front of you at Flight of Passage instead of heading off in search of miniature Sicilian donkeys.

Ordinarily, Affection Section would serve as a glorified petting zoo for rare goats, as it should, but it seems much more likely that you’ll look at the animals from a distance for now.

If you use DisneyGiftCard.com because you thought it would be a convenient way to keep track of your gift cards, you’ll want to take note that your account will no longer exist as of January 20, 2021. Check out the full terms if you have an account and make sure you have your information saved.

Disney released more details about what to expect from the upcoming “D23 Fantastic Worlds Celebration” panels, and they all sound significantly less interesting than their names would imply, potentially with this one exception, which tells you exactly what to expect. I’m not sure if that is necessarily a good thing. At least it’s not being held at Galaxy’s Edge Total Landscaping.

Today’s Waits

Animal Kingdom:

We begin with our usual chart of Animal Kingdom’s average daily wait since it reopened on July 11th:

It sort of looks like Disney knew what to expect crowd- and wait-time-wise. The goofy thing is that through the Park Pass system, they should know just about exactly how many people are going to arrive on any given day. Potentially, some number of ticketless folks will show up looking to buy 1-day tickets, but everyone else is booked well in advance. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday all had the exact same operating hours, with the national holiday falling on Wednesday with a gigantic average wait time to go along with it. Then on Thursday, waits drop by almost half.

Here’s Friday’s chart:

Larger: Here.

This weekend’s operating hours are the longest they’ve been since the theme parks reopened in July. Animal Kingdom opened at 7am, which would have been rare even during a holiday week during the best of times. It doesn’t look like a lot of people bothered showing up early, which means we’ll have to add an asterisk to our advice that wait times go down as closing time approaches. You’ve only got three days during the week to see the Tree of Life Awakenings show and the nighttime lighting around the Park.

The longer hours are a tempting proposition, even if you’re not going to take advantage of them. Visiting on Thursday or Friday would either cost about the same or exactly the same. But one day, you get 9am to 5pm. The other day, you get 7am to 7pm. Intuitively, the latter sounds like a more attractive value proposition. Then you get there at 10am and leave at 4pm, just like you would have on the day before, when waits were considerably lower. At the moment, we don’t see any 7am opens on the schedule after this weekend, even during Thanksgiving, which just this week Disney publicly lauded as a near sellout across the board. The Park will still be open 12 hours – just from 8am to 8pm instead. Based on the number of people out at 6:45am “on vacation,” that looks like a wise move. Waits on Saturday and Sunday will still be higher.

Epcot:

Larger: Here.

On the flip side, it seems a little strange to refer to a 10am open at Epcot as “early,” but here we are. The Park isn’t scheduled to open that early for the rest of the year, though I would certainly expect that to change around Christmas. But even during Thanksgiving, it’s 11am to 10pm. The longer hours certainly help spread the crowds out – despite being a “busy day,” the overall average wait is below-average for that reason.

I would reintroduce you to Wednesday’s chart:

Larger: Here.

On the holiday, the average wait was almost 50% higher than the Friday with two more operating hours. Again, Disney knows just about exactly how many people are arriving on any given day. You wouldn’t typically expect Wednesday, historically the least crowded day of the week, to be busy. But I think you have to make an exception for a national holiday. If Friday’s operating hours matched Wednesday’s, the wait times would have been much closer.

Hollywood Studios:

At least there’s the comfort of Hollywood Studios, where it’s always a bad day to visit. But even that isn’t true with the unusually early 9am open this weekend.

Here’s Friday’s chart:

Larger: Here.

I’ll say this for Magic Kingdom too so I don’t have to type it out again: after this weekend, there isn’t another day on the calendar with an open this early. And the longer hours help distribute crowds far more than any modification to the boarding group process at Rise of the Resistance ever will. I don’t think we’ve seen an hour of “green” wait times to start the day in months.

Here’s this past Wednesday:

Larger: Here.

On Friday, with the earlier open, you get shorter waits and crowds that are more spread out. But even then, part of what makes the Wednesday look so bad is the technical trouble at Tower of Terror early in the day, halving the already-reduced capacity, and doubling what waits would have been given usual operation. I’d still take the Friday with the earlier open. If only there were any after Sunday. That may yet change, even if it hasn’t (yet?) for Thanksgiving.

Magic Kingdom:

Thursday would have been a good day to visit. But Friday’s extra hour does help push the average wait lower than it has been on a Friday since the end of September.

Here’s the chart:

Larger: Here.

It’s pretty clear how much lower wait times are during those first 90 minutes. Unlike Epcot or Hollywood Studios, Magic Kingdom still sees a higher average than any day earlier in the week. Saturday and Sunday will still be worse, much like Animal Kingdom.

Current Disney Park Pass Availability 

23% for the quarter according to Disney.

The fact that the only Park available on Saturday is Animal Kingdom is probably an indication as to why the hours are longer this weekend. Even over Thanksgiving, and the next two Saturdays, most days have more availability, even if the Studios is unavailable. You may recall that Disney added spots at the Studios for all ticket segments from November 29th through December 19th. They have since sold out in November.

Days in December are also filling:

Disney is yet to add availability from December 20th through the end of the year, but they will at some point.

The Studios also remains unavailable on January 1st and 2nd as holiday crowds stay through the end of the week:

Disney should add more spots to the Studios in early January around the same time they add them for late December.

As I type this up on Friday the 13th, Passholders wouldn’t be able to book anything on the 14th:

Only Epcot is currently available on the 15th. The following week, only the Studios is booked, with the exception of Saturday the 21st, when Magic Kingdom is also a sellout.

December looks better:

With the exception of most weekends. We do have much more availability from the 19th on, likely due to the majority of lower tier annual passes being blocked out.

Looking at Passholders in January:

January 9th may be the next Saturday sellout for that reason.

Not a whole lot surprises me, but I’ll admit this did:

I would have not foreseen enough people both having valid passes and the foresight to book Magic Kingdom’s 50th anniversary nearly a year in advance. Or Disney is about to start selling Annual Passes again and they’re baiting us. Either way, that’s the only other date that’s currently booked for Passholders in 2021. Potentially, if you’re a Passholder and want to guarantee a spot on October 1st, you could book a room and become a Disney Resort Guest. But we’re a long way from October. I would be even more surprised if we don’t see the day turn green for all again.

Operating Schedule Changes:

Friday, November 20:

• Animal Kingdom hours extended to 8am to 7pm from 8am to 6pm.

Saturday, November 21:

• Animal Kingdom hours extended to 8am to 7pm from 8am to 6pm.

Sunday, November 29:

• Animal Kingdom hours extended to 8am to 7pm from 8am to 6pm.
• Epcot hours extended to 11am to 10pm from 11am to 9pm.
• Magic Kingdom hours extended to 9am to 9pm from 9am to 8pm

Friday, December 4:

• Animal Kingdom hours extended to 8am to 7pm from 8am to 6pm.
• Epcot hours extended to 11am to 10pm from 11am to 9pm.
• Magic Kingdom hours extended to 9am to 9pm from 9am to 8pm

Saturday, December 5:

• Animal Kingdom hours extended to 8am to 7pm from 8am to 6pm.
• Epcot hours extended to 11am to 10pm from 11am to 9pm.
• Magic Kingdom hours extended to 9am to 9pm from 9am to 8pm

Sunday, December 6:

• Animal Kingdom hours extended to 8am to 7pm from 8am to 6pm.
• Epcot hours extended to 11am to 10pm from 11am to 9pm.
• Magic Kingdom hours extended to 9am to 9pm from 9am to 8pm

Friday, December 11:

• Animal Kingdom hours extended to 8am to 7pm from 8am to 6pm.
• Epcot hours extended to 11am to 10pm from 11am to 9pm.
• Magic Kingdom hours extended to 9am to 9pm from 9am to 8pm

Saturday, December 12:

• Animal Kingdom hours extended to 8am to 7pm from 8am to 6pm.
• Epcot hours extended to 11am to 10pm from 11am to 9pm.
• Magic Kingdom hours extended to 9am to 9pm from 9am to 8pm

Sunday, December 13:

• Animal Kingdom hours extended to 8am to 7pm from 8am to 6pm.
• Epcot hours extended to 11am to 10pm from 11am to 9pm.
• Magic Kingdom hours extended to 9am to 9pm from 9am to 8pm

Friday, December 18:

• Animal Kingdom hours extended to 8am to 7pm from 8am to 6pm.
• Epcot hours extended to 11am to 10pm from 11am to 9pm.
• Magic Kingdom hours extended to 9am to 9pm from 9am to 8pm

Saturday, December 19:

• Animal Kingdom hours extended to 8am to 7pm from 8am to 6pm.
• Epcot hours extended to 11am to 10pm from 11am to 9pm.
• Magic Kingdom hours extended to 9am to 9pm from 9am to 8pm

I’m not sure if we have to give Disney credit for not letting more people into the Studios, considering the demand is obviously there, or take it away because they don’t extend hours so more people can visit. But if memory serves, this weekend is “literally” the only one where they have increased hours. But so many other days are also sellouts across all ticket segments, and you’ll note that the Park is conspicuously absent from the extensions above. Why not increase hours then, too? And potentially open up more spots? If you can figure that one out, you’re smarter than I am. I can’t imagine that demand was somehow so overwhelming and so unwavering this weekend and will then drop off for Thanksgiving. You can check the Park Pass calendar and see that the Studios is a sellout across all segments just about every day for the rest of the month. We’ll see what they do at Christmas.

Disney also added another week of hours, from January 24th through the 30th of next year. The hours are currently the same as the rest of the month, and obviously very subject to change as you can see above. They’re currently:

• Animal Kingdom: 9am to 5pm
• Epcot: 11am to 7pm
• Hollywood Studios: 10am to 7pm
• Magic Kingdom: 9am to 6pm

You may be able to take the Studios’ hours to the bank, though. We previously saw them add a week’s worth of hours on Thursday. Usually, the changes come on Fridays. It may be an indication that Disney is slowly moving things out and will eventually move to a 90-day booking window, or they may merely be offering something to those who are looking to book into the new year. As posted, the current hours would be more of a turn-off than anything. Disneyland is known for the 60-day thing, but those planning Disney World vacations are used to seeing hours about 195 days in advance and dining reservations open 180+ days early. At least as recently as March.

Interesting Menu Changes:

The Beach Club Marketplace formally added their Salted Caramel Chocolate Fall Cupcake for $5.99 to the menu.

Teppan Edo changed their “Grilled California Roll topped with Shrimp, Scallops, and Volcano Sauce” with a “California Roll topped with Yellowtail, Salmon, Smelt Roe, Arare Crunch, and Spicy Mayonnaise.”

I don’t get out much, so I don’t know if this is more common than I think it is, but Teppan Edo was the first time I had ever seen or heard of anyone grilling sushi before. I doubt you can refer to a California Roll as “traditional,” but it sounds like they’re switching to the usual chilled version.

While Teppan Edo has reopened, Tokyo Dining next door hasn’t. They did update their online menu:

And pared down the options considerably, eliminating most Appetizers, Bento Boxes, Entrees, and a lot of their sushi from the menu, among other things. It may be entirely meaningless or a sign that they’re going to reopen soon with not a whole lot on the menu. The Bluefin Tuna there does sound good. You can pull up the current menu here, but keep in mind that there are no hours or reservations currently available either way.

BoardWalk Bakery added a “Jersey-style Italian Hoagie” for $10.49 and Brioche Boston Cream Doughnut to the menu for $4.29. I know I don’t speak for New Jersey, but I thought y’all preferred to call it a sandwich. It does sound good though.

That should get you caught up.