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You are here: Home / Blog / September 2016 Preliminary Crowd Calendar

September 2016 Preliminary Crowd Calendar

February 16, 2016 ~ 4 minutes read17 Comments

This is what we’re looking at for September 2016. Click to enlarge or view as a prettier PDF. And if you don’t know what the numbers/letters mean, read the top of this post. The full operating schedule is available here.

More than usual is unknown about September this year. We don’t know when the first Halloween Party will be scheduled. Last year, those dates became official on February 25th. Ordinarily, the 7pm closures would be a good indicator of when the Parties would be scheduled, but last year Disney released preliminary hours with 7pm closures and then extended the hours earlier in the month and didn’t schedule the first Halloween Party until September 15th. In 2014, the first Halloween Party was scheduled on September 1st. In 2013, it was September 10th. In 2012, it was the 11th. In 2011, it was the 13th. So seeing the first Party on the 2nd wouldn’t be unheard of and Disney may elect to take advantage of slightly heavier crowds over the Labor Day holiday. Historically, the first few Halloween Parties didn’t sell a lot of tickets, but last year, most sold out. But regardless of when the first Party is scheduled, the recommendations shouldn’t shift much over the first couple of weeks.

Another peculiarity is that the Electrical Parade and Wishes at Magic Kingdom aren’t scheduled at all from September 5th through 23rd. As I’ve mentioned liberally over the last couple of weeks, Disney is in cost cutting mode. And we’re not talking about pulling Chip and Dale from Future World. We’re talking about delaying the opening of Mouse Gear until an hour after regular Park open every day. We’re talking about shutting down Agent P World Showcase Adventure at 6:15pm. We’re talking about only one Electrical Parade and Fantasmic over the busy spring break period. And those are only what’s immediately visible by glancing at a Times Guide. These cuts are deep and pervasive across all divisions of all theme parks at a time when domestic theme park attendance, and perhaps more importantly, profits, have never been higher.

I mention this partially because September is far off and as I’ve said a few times recently, “things change.” The last time Wishes and the Electrical Parade weren’t scheduled for an extended period of time was back in late January and early February of 2012, when much of Frontierland was re-paved. With the Halloween Party going on, they couldn’t really do any repaving during that time since Boo to You would run during that event, as would HalloWishes. So if they were to shut those shows down for a couple of weeks, it would likely be just to cut costs when the lowest number of people are around. If I were a betting man, I think we will see at least Wishes scheduled nightly when the Halloween Party isn’t scheduled. Even Disney (hopefully) isn’t cheap enough to skip their most iconic fireworks display. On the other hand, with 8pm and 9pm closures, Disney doesn’t need to offer the nighttime spectaculars to get people to stay in the Park through close, particularly with longer waits with reduced staffing and increased FastPass+ usage.

Another thing relatively up in the air is the start of the Food and Wine Festival. Based on past history, it seems likely that the event would begin on the 23rd with the usual preview the day before. But it’s possible that they kick the event off on the 16th instead as they tried two years ago. If you pull up the supplied operating schedule, you’ll notice that IllumiNations is also not currently scheduled on Fridays and Saturdays beginning on the 16th and 17th. If the Festival were to begin on the 16th, the close would likely change to 10pm with IllumiNations scheduled at 10pm. And again, even if the Park would be similarly crowded with or without the nighttime spectacular, you really can’t imagine Disney would be that cheap. But again, whether or not IllumiNations is scheduled would not affect the recommendations. You’d still want to avoid Friday nights and Saturdays during Food and Wine. But Epcot would not be recommended on the 16th, 17th, or 18th if the Festival kicks off early.

There aren’t even any dates for Night of Joy yet, which thankfully is being moved to the ESPN Wide World of Sports complex in 2016 and should have less of an impact on daytime crowds, though it depends what their tickets include.

Overall, September sees the lowest crowds of the year for the most part. I would remind readers that this website uses a normal distribution from 1 to 10 with 1 being the lowest crowds of the year and 10 being the highest crowds of the year. The numbers also only include six months before and six months after a given date, with the express purpose of guiding you towards the least crowded time of year or at least letting you know what to expect. You won’t see a “10” unless a Park is likely going to be closed to capacity and “9s” are relegated largely to peak level crowds that are just below that. A “1” is significantly more crowded now than it was five or six years ago and FastPass+ continues to push up wait times at historically secondary attractions. If you are of the mind that “Magic Kingdom is never below a 6,” that’s a really stupid way to think (and I use “think” very loosely here) about it, but you’re more than welcome to add some number between “4” and “6” to every crowd level you see in September to form your own arbitrary scale. But you can’t use my numbers, disregard how they’re intended to be used and what they mean, and then tell me I’m “wrong.” Because this website almost never is.

Enjoy planning.

Last modified: June 5, 2018 Filed Under: Blog

Comments

  1. Dave Shute says

    February 16, 2016 at 11:06 am

    “But you can’t use my numbers, disregard how they’re intended to be used and what they mean, and then tell me I’m “wrong.” ”

    Love it!

    Reply
  2. Sabrina says

    February 16, 2016 at 11:07 am

    Actually NOJ dates have been released. It will Sept 9th and 10th. I’m glad someone is happy it won’t be at the MK. I know many of us are very disappointed in this move.

    Reply
    • josh says

      February 16, 2016 at 11:23 am

      Nobody happier than the person in charge of inventory shrinkage, I’m sure.

      Reply
      • Sabrina says

        February 16, 2016 at 1:48 pm

        Very ture. I’m hoping it doesn’t work out and they decide to change back to MK. I’m sure that’s a long shot. Just glad they are still offering it. Hope they will continue to. I’m sure I will still attend based on ticket prices over the yrs.

        Reply
    • Tiffany says

      February 17, 2016 at 10:27 am

      Their tickets will include admission to MK.

      Reply
  3. thebeast says

    February 16, 2016 at 1:31 pm

    I will be in WDW this sept. Your daily park recommendations are the most comprehensive and well thought out I have seen. When will post your daily recommendations?

    Thanks again for everything you do. You are a great resource for someone like me who loves planning.

    Reply
  4. Kitty says

    February 16, 2016 at 4:26 pm

    Hi Josh, I knew that NOJ had moved this year so I was surprised when on The Dibb’s park hours they show NOJ as an MK event on the 9th and 10th. Basically they have the park opening times as you do and then underneath it says:
    “Special Event – Night of Joy
    3:00pm – Disney Festival of Fantasy Parade
    7:30pm to 1:00am – Night of Joy”

    So is the event still partially at MK – would this change recs at all if NOJ guests will be showing up for Wishes (if they run) that night? Or is it an error from The Dibb?

    Thank you once again so, so much for all that you do. My Dad’s coming back to Disney wih us next year (he hasn’t been since 2008!) and I’ve already ordered him your book and said “this is everything you need to know!!”

    Reply
  5. Sergio says

    February 16, 2016 at 6:21 pm

    Guys, is it correct on september 28th MK Extra Magic Hours at 9pm? Wouldn´t it be 10 pm?

    Another question: supose I am not a Disney Resort guest and I am inside the park when Extra Magic Hours starts. I believe I can stay there but I will not be allowed to ride any attraction, right?

    Regards

    Reply
  6. Jeff says

    February 16, 2016 at 8:04 pm

    Are the cost cutting moves also the reason for no late closings for MK on Saturdays? We’ve been there the past two Septembers and both times spent our last evening (a Saturday) in MK until 1 AM.

    Kinda sad to see that go. It was a fun way to end the trip.

    Reply
  7. Nichole says

    February 16, 2016 at 8:12 pm

    Do you have any clue as to when they would release the Halloween party dates? I am hoping to have all the info I need to book our ADR next month but I need to know what parks Im doing on what days. Thanks for this so early I was so excited to see this posted this morning!

    Reply
    • Erin says

      February 17, 2016 at 9:30 am

      He mentioned that last year the dates were released on 2/25, so my guess would be they will come out around the end of February again.

      Reply
  8. Henry Francis says

    February 17, 2016 at 11:55 am

    Instead of 1 to 10 it really should be 9.1 to 10 as it’s insanely crowded all year compared to before.

    I can’t wait for the upcoming global financial crash as that’s going to finally thin the crowds out.

    Reply
    • mike says

      February 26, 2016 at 10:39 pm

      Jerez and with a comenta like that i hope you are hit hardest

      Reply
  9. Kelly says

    February 18, 2016 at 1:07 pm

    I have 9/11-16 booked. How do you think the announcement of the Food and Wine Festival beginning on 9/14 are going to affect crowds that week?

    Reply
  10. Paul J says

    February 23, 2016 at 7:29 am

    Got to say this site is very impressive. Clearly a lot of work goes into it.
    Questions on Park Recommendations:
    It seems that the days that a park is ‘not recommended’ tend to be the same days there are Extra Magic Hours in those parks.
    Is this based on the reader not having the benefit of EMH?
    So if I can use EMH, should I still avoid the park that day?

    Reply
  11. Amy says

    February 23, 2016 at 7:29 am

    What do you think the chances are there will be free dining in September again???

    Reply
  12. Monica says

    February 24, 2016 at 8:58 pm

    OMG! We will be there Sept 4th thru the 12th. I SURE hope there will be more than ONE Wishes during out entire stay!!!!! Can you imagine how crowded that would be?????

    Reply

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