New Strategy for Disney’s Hollywood Studios FastPass+ Tier Changes Coming February 19th

The FastPass+ Tiers at Disney’s Hollywood Studios will change again on Wednesday, February 19th, 2020. 

Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run will begin offering FastPass+ on February 19th.

The addition of FastPass+ comes a little less than six months after the attraction opened with the initial phase of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge back on August 29th, 2019.

Hollywood Studios will continue to offer two FastPass+ Tiers with Smugglers Run and Slinky Dog Dash comprising Tier 1. All other attractions will be in Tier 2. Guests may initially select only one attraction from Tier 1 and two attractions from Tier 2. If no Tier 1 attractions are available, then a guest may initially select up to three attractions from Tier 2.

Beginning February 19th, this is how the FastPass+ priority should look, based on how much time FP+ will save you in line, and how difficult it will be to secure a given attraction as a 4th or subsequent FastPass+:

Tier 1:

1. Slinky Dog Dash
2. Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run

Tier 2:

1. Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster
2. Toy Story Mania
3. Tower of Terror
4. Alien Swirling Saucers
5. Star Tours
6. Frozen Sing-Along
7. Beauty and the Beast Live on Stage
8. Indiana Jones Epic Stunt Spectacular
9. Disney Junior Dance Party
10. Voyage of the Little Mermaid
11. Fantasmic
12. Muppet*Vision 3D

It will be interesting to see how high wait times climb at Smugglers Run with the introduction of FastPass+. Currently, the ride’s average wait is still around an hour. Most days after 1pm, actual waits for the space simulator are around 45 minutes and go down from there as closing time approaches. As long as you weren’t waiting outside the queue, your actual wait would be under an hour. That made it possible to put off Smugglers Run for the early afternoon or evening without much concern that the actual wait would be hours long.

The introduction of FastPass+ will change that, with as much as 70% of the ride’s capacity going to FastPass+ priority beginning February 19th. Without FastPass+, if you’re the 1,500th person waiting for Smugglers Run in standby, then your actual wait will be about an hour, since that’s around the ride’s hourly capacity. With FastPass+ enabled, if you’re the 1,500th person waiting in standby, then your wait will be about three hours. You’re not only waiting behind everyone in front of you in the standby line, but you’re also, in essence, waiting behind everyone else who arrives after you with FastPass+ priority during your (extended) stint in line.

We’ll have to wait and see how much demand there is for Smugglers Run after it joins the FastPass+ system, and whether its wait times begin to eclipse those seen at Slinky Dog Dash. Smugglers Run enjoys a higher capacity than Slinky Dog Dash, which means more FastPass+ experiences will be distributed for it per hour. If Smugglers Run moves through 1,500 people per hour, then about 1,000 FP+ per hour should be distributed. Slinky Dog Dash moves through about 1,200 people per hour, meaning about 800 FastPass+ experiences per hour are likely distributed.

It’s likely that Disney will ease Smugglers Run into the FastPass+ system and not initially distribute the maximum number of FastPass+ experiences per hour beginning February 19th. This way, the standby line won’t be completely bogged down if their initial calculations about capacity prove to be off, and actual waits with FastPass+ won’t hit 30+ minutes. We’ve seen this strategy implemented at other recently-opened attractions like Avatar Flight of Passage, Frozen Ever After, and Slinky Dog Dash. Initially, a limited number of FastPass+ experiences per hour were released. Then, closer to a given date, a “surprise” allotment of FastPass+ were released. This gives Disney an opportunity to track wait times and crowd flow and then adjust the number of FastPass+ experiences distributed per hour higher.

Assuming Disney does release 1,000 FP+ per hour for Smugglers Run, and 800 FastPass+ per hour for Slinky Dog Dash, then there’s a combined 1,800 Tier 1 FastPass+ experiences being distributed per hour. Currently, Hollywood Studios is open from 7am to 8pm daily, or 13 hours. Over the course of that day, there are then about 23,400 Tier 1 FP+ available. In 2017, before Toy Story Land or Galaxy’s Edge opened, the Studios averaged about 30,000 guests per day. Here in 2020, with Rise of the Resistance attracting 10,000+ guests before the Park even opens at 7am, we can probably assume that daily attendance is approaching 35,000 to 40,000 guests. But even given 2017’s attendance numbers, there aren’t enough Tier 1 FastPass+ for everyone visiting the Studios to book one in advance.

We saw a similar phenomenon with the opening of Pandora over at Disney’s Animal Kingdom. Over there, Avatar Flight of Passage and Na’vi River Journey are both in Tier 1, and guests may initially select one attraction or the other. Flight of Passage is the clear priority, with posted waits that are more than twice as long as those found at River Journey. For the first year or so that Pandora was open, it was virtually impossible to book Flight of Passage or Na’vi River Journey fewer than 60 days in advance.

These days, Flight of Passage FastPass+ remain in extremely short supply, while Na’vi River Journey FastPass+ are much easier to come by. You can now typically book River Journey on the day before your visit. At some point, the situation at the Studios will also simmer down, making it easier to book priority FP+ with less lead time.

There is still no word on when Mickey and Minnie’s Runaway Railway will add FastPass+. Historically, Disney has opened new attractions with FastPass+, if not on the actual day of the official opening, then within a couple of days. That was true with Flight of Passage at Animal Kingdom, Slinky Dog Dash here at Hollywood Studios, and Frozen Ever After at Epcot. It’s possible that Disney “learned” something from those openings.

While Flight of Passage almost never goes down entirely, thanks to a ride system comprised of several independent theaters, the ride still regularly posts 150+ minute standby waits. For the first year that Flight of Passage was open, 240-minute peak waits were common. Long waits are a surefire way to disappoint theme park guests. And waits are longer when FastPass+ is enabled.

Frozen never routinely posted 3+ hour waits like Flight of Passage, but it did have a tendency to go down for technical problems during those first few months of operation, in particular. That caused the ride to occasionally operate as “FastPass+ only,” which is also a good way to confuse and disappoint guests.

Most of Frozen’s kinks have since been worked out, and the ride goes down for technical trouble much less frequently, but the ride’s opening probably would have been smoother had it not initially offered FastPass+. Above is a picture of the end of the line for Frozen on opening day.

Back to the Runaway Railway, the new ride is officially opening on March 4th, 2020, which is about six weeks away. It’s also exactly two weeks afters Smugglers Run adds FastPass+ and the FastPass+ Tiers at the Studios change. It’s possible that Disney is waiting to make sure that the Runaway Railway is actually ready to go by March. The ride was originally anticipated to open last year, with Disney actually selling embroidered merchandise with 2019 as the opening year. They may also be waiting to find out how reliable the ride is and what the actual hourly capacity will end up being. If Disney anticipates that the ride’s hourly capacity is 2,000 guests, and distributes 1,500 FP+ per hour from day one, only to find out that the ride’s hourly capacity is only going to come in around 1,400 guests, then they’re going to have a problem.

While we would all probably agree that Disney’s Hollywood Studios needs to add capacity by opening new attractions, they are in a somewhat unique situation where they also need to grow FastPass+ capacity. More and more guests are booking FastPass+ days, if not months, in advance. And if they pull up their handy-dandy app and see that there’s little or no desirable FastPass+ opportunities, then they may elect to do something else. From Disney’s perspective, the worst possible thing that could happen would be for a guest to pull up FP+ availability at the Studios, see nothing for the Star Wars rides, the new Mickey Mouse ride, or Slinky Dog Dash, and decide to spend their day at Universal Studios instead. Without adding FastPass+ capacity, that’s more likely to happen.

Currently, this is the FastPass+ situation at Hollywood Studios 30 days from today, on February 22nd:

If I’m planning my day at Disney World, and I can’t book any of the Toy Story Land or Star Wars rides in advance, then I may be rethinking my day.

Fortunately(?) for Disney, people seem to be willing to take their consolation prizes:

After all, people have been selecting Na’vi River Journey as their Tier 1 FastPass+ at Disney’s Animal Kingdom for something like three years now. Ask your typical Walt Disney World visitor what Voyage of the Little Mermaid is and they will probably not be able to tell you. This seems to work to Disney’s advantage.

Of course, the big question is when Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance will move to a standby/FastPass+ setup like virtually every other ride at Walt Disney World. There is still no timeline for that. As we know, Disney’s only official comment is that the virtual queue system would be used “for a few weeks” during a test and adjust phase over the holidays. The adjustments seem to be coming in slowly, with the ride still seeing delayed openings and frequent downtime for a host of technical issues. If Rise of the Resistance was going to add FastPass+ before the end of February, then you’d think they would do it on the same day that they released FP+ for Smugglers Run. On the other hand, the rush of people booking FP+ for Smugglers Run on the morning of their release caused the entire FP+ system to crash, and guests weren’t able to make new FP+ selections for a time. To that end, it would make sense for Disney to release FP+ for its new attractions one at a time.

Remember, this is the same company that never mentioned that a virtual queue system for Rise of the Resistance would be in use from opening day onward. It took them two weeks to publicly acknowledge that such a system even existed via the Disney Parks Blog.

So What Does It Mean on February 19th?

Anyone who is able should book one of the two available Tier 1 FastPass+ selections – either Slinky Dog Dash or Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run. Booking Slinky Dog Dash probably makes more sense if both are available, but we can expect waits at Smugglers Run to double when FP+ comes online, making that semi-tolerable 60-minute average wait instantaneously go up to a full two hours or more.

For the Tier 1 ride that you aren’t able to book in advance, you’ll likely want to rope drop it, ride it last thing at night, or try to refresh FP+ availability until someone eventually cancels their FP+ selection and makes it available for anyone else to book. So if I book Slinky Dog Dash as my Tier 1 FastPass+, I’m either heading to Smugglers Run absolutely first thing in the morning, waiting until the very end of the night to ride, or trying to refresh FP+ availability after I use my initial three selections to book Smugglers Run as my 4th FP+.

Flight of Passage might remain a very difficult FP+ to book 60 days in advance, but people constantly change their plans. There has never been a day in my life where I haven’t been able to refresh FP+ availability on the day-of until Flight of Passage eventually became available. The same will be true for Smugglers Run and Slinky Dog Dash. It may take 20 minutes of constant refreshing, but it’s still better than waiting two hours in line.

From there, you’ll need to select two attractions from Tier 2:

1. Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster
2. Toy Story Mania
3. Tower of Terror
4. Alien Swirling Saucers
5. Star Tours
6. Frozen Sing-Along
7. Beauty and the Beast Live on Stage
8. Indiana Jones Epic Stunt Spectacular
9. Disney Junior Dance Party
10. Voyage of the Little Mermaid
11. Fantasmic
12. Muppet*Vision 3D

If Slinky Dog Dash and Smugglers Run are unavailable, then you’ll find yourself selecting three attractions from Tier 2. Based on scarcity and time savings, booking Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster and Toy Story Mania will save you the most time. On the other hand, if you’re planning on starting the day at Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster and Tower of Terror, then you may want to select Slinky Dog Dash as your Tier 1 FP+ and Toy Story Mania and Alien Swirling Saucers as your Tier 2 FastPass+ selections. If Slinky Dog is unavailable, then you could book any of the other Tier 2 selections instead.

Amusingly(?), the change in FastPass+ Tiers will make it more difficult to book Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster, Toy Story Mania, Tower of Terror, and Alien Swirling Saucers in advance. Over the last five months, those rides have been part of Tier 1, and we’ve only been able to select one of them in advance. Now, guests will be able to select two or three of those rides in advance, and FastPass+ availability will be significantly worse as people gobble up additional selections in advance.

So What Does It Mean on March 4th with the opening of the Runaway Railway?

Unfortunately, what we see from February 19th through March 3rd will be somewhat irrelevant, as we’ll also need to work in Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway on March 4th. It’s hard to say how popular that attraction will end up being. A big part of how we go about our day will also depend on whether the new ride adds FastPass+ in short order, or if it takes a while.

At the moment, it seems like this will be how best to organize the day:

1. Book FastPass+ for either Slinky Dog Dash or Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run
2. Book FastPass+ for Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster and Tower of Terror
3. Secure a boarding group for Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance immediately at Park opening. Plan on riding towards the end of the 2-hour return window, or whenever it’s convenient
4. Either rope drop the Tier 1 attraction for which you were unable to acquire FP+ or plan on experiencing it last thing at night
5. Ride Alien Swirling Saucers and Toy Story Mania in standby
6. Ride Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway in standby
7. Ride Star Tours and experience other attractions in standby
8. Use your FastPass+, ideally at Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster and Tower of Terror back to back, and then at your Tier 1 selection
9. Ride Rise of the Resistance when your boarding group is called

That will get you to all of the Studios’ rides with what should be a minimum amount of hassle.

There are still several questions to answer, including what time we can expect Hollywood Studios to open moving forward. Just yesterday, Disney moved the open to 7am through February 2nd, but didn’t extend the open earlier than 9am on any future dates. With 5,000+ people now arriving at the Studios before 7am just about every day to sign up for a Rise of the Resistance boarding group, we’re potentially looking at a 5:30am arrival in order to be in front of the holding area, poised to either rope drop Slinky Dog Dash or Smugglers Run first thing. That makes a late night visit to either Slinky Dog or Smugglers Run look attractive for those who can swing it. Actual waits for both are routinely under a half hour at the very end of the night. Otherwise, refreshing FP+ availability on the day-of will remain your best strategy to experience additional attractions with short waits.

Luckily for me, this sort of chaos is exactly what keeps this website afloat. Without Hollywood Studios, I would have gone out of business in 2012. Unfortunately for you, a lot is still up in the air. Fortunately, we’ve been able to figure things out so far, and touring Hollywood Studios after Galaxy’s Edge has opened actually “feels” easier than it would have been a couple of years ago. You may not feel like that yet, but Star Wars has increased capacity, opened up FastPass+ availability, and helped spread out the crowds. Adding the Runaway Railway should ease things up even more.

Certainly, we’ll stay tuned to the developments as they happen, likely with 2,000+ word posts published hours after the news is initially released.