I'll have a more thorough look on the blog, but thought I would share how things went today (now yesterday, sorry).
The deal is that Dumbo and Rapunzel are no longer "must do first" attractions. In fact, you can easily visit Dumbo at 10:30am and find a wait of 10 or less minutes. Since this is July, we shouldn't expect this trend to change over the next few months. With Dumbo an easy FASTPASS all day (virtually always a 40 minute return) and the playground, it's actually a bad choice to go to Dumbo first thing. However, Dumbo is somewhat hidden in the back of the Park these days. That will change when the Belle area opens and then even more so in 2014 when the Mine Coaster opens. And then this is all likely to change again when whatever FASTPASS+ comes to fruition. So we may see Dumbo wait times skew upwards this "holiday season."
The big problem with Magic Kingdom is that with the number of attractions, it's far more complicated to choose your plan of attack. And your plan is contingent on a wealth of factors, including whether you want to meet characters, whether you want to do the ultra-low capacity attractions like Astro Orbiter, whether you have kids in tow, what time Magic Kingdom closes, etc.
At Epcot, it's pretty simple - Soarin' -> Test Track (when it's open) -> Sum of All Thrills -> Mission: Space. You may want to start with Character Spot, but other than that, the plan doesn't change. If you're not interested in one attraction, the wait time at the next attraction will simply be shorter. Once you get through those four, you're basically done with what you need to plan. Outside of maybe Maelstrom, no significant waits, assuming you visit Spaceship Earth after 1pm.
Same thing at Animal Kingdom - Kilimanjaro Safaris -> Expedition Everest -> Primeval Whirl -> DINOSAUR. The wildcards there being the Character Greeting Trails and Kali River Rapids. But both are easy to fit in with crowds easing considerably after 4:15pm.
At Studios - Toy Story Mania -> Rock 'n' Roller Coaster -> Tower of Terror -> Star Tours. Characters can complicate things here too, but you're still fine with FASTPASS at RnR, Tower of Terror, and Star Tours into the afternoon. It's especially doable with the lengthy stage shows eating up time between FASTPASSes.
Magic Kingdom is simply another beast. Throw Ariel in and everything changes. Astro Orbiter and Tomorrowland Speedway? Everything changes. Skipping the "kiddy" Fantasyland rides? Everything changes.
But I think we can still get a clear idea about what we want to do. Anyway, this is getting wordy so I'll just get to it.
I decided to do the following:
The numbers after the attractions are time of arrival / time back out front.
For example: Ride Big Thunder Mountain - 9:08am / 9:17am means I got in line at 9:08am and was back out front at 9:17am. In the case of FASTPASSes, it's just the time pulled.
Collect FASTPASSes for Winnie the Pooh - 8:59am
Ride Peter Pan's Flight - 8:59am / 9:06am
Ride Splash Mountain - 9:13am / 9:30am
Ride Big Thunder Mountain - 9:30am / 9:42am
Collect FASTPASS for Big Thunder - 9:44am (I had walked a bit towards Adventureland before deciding to collect the FASTASS. Return time was 10:25am - 11:25am).
Ride Jungle Cruise - 9:48am / 10:04am
Ride Winnie the Pooh with FASTPASS - 10:21am / 10:30am
Ride Barnstormer - 10:35am / 10:40am
Ride Dumbo - 10:41am / 10:51am
Collect FASTPASSes for Space Mountain - 10:58am with return time 12:35pm / 1:35pm
Ride Big Thunder Mountain Railroad with FASTPASS - 11:15am / 11:30am
Ride Pirates of the Caribbean - 11:34am / 11:47am
Have lunch at Diamond Horseshoe - 11:52am / 12:10pm
Ride Space Mountain - 12:36pm / 12:48pm
I felt like it was a pretty solid morning. I waited in virtually no lines other than Jungle Cruise for about five minutes and Dumbo for about five minutes. I virtually walked on everything else, including Splash Mountain where I got the beloved, "Sit anywhere you want." By 12pm, the wait at Splash was 75 minutes, 70 minutes at Space, 40 at Big Thunder, 55 at Peter Pan etc.
The problem is that it's a decent amount of walking. If you want to cut down on it, you'll need to do two days with more compartmentalization or plan to use FASTPASS more and hang out in the area until it's time to use them.
The thing about the summer is by 1pm there isn't a lot you can do with short waits. Even Monsters Inc. Laugh Floor is backed up outside. Stitch is using the extended queue. Haunted Mansion and it's a small world are 30 minutes+. You really either want to take a break or hit the truly high capacity/less popular attractions, which are basically Country Bear Jamboree, Liberty Square Riverboat, Swiss Family Treehouse, Enchanted Tiki Room, Carousel of Progress, Mickey's PhilharMagic. But you're better off back at your resort with a return around 6pm.