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Just one of these:

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Here’s what we’re looking at for April:

If you have no idea what any of those letters and numbers mean, read the beginning of this post which explains it.  April sees mostly average overall crowds outside of the week following Easter, which is one of the busiest and most expensive months of the year.  The “nice” things about April are that nighttime entertainment is plentiful and all four major theme parks see nice long hours.  Unfortunately, that also means you’re looking at less variability in crowds at each of the Parks on a day to day basis.  Operating hours and entertainment are two strong drivers of crowds.  When there’s fewer opportunities to see the nighttime spectaculars, days that don’t feature them are much less crowded.  During weeks where Magic Kingdom is open until at least 10pm and offers both nighttime spectaculars, we don’t see the huge dropoffs in crowds from one day to the next like we do in January, February, September, October, and most of November and the first half of December.  The same is true at Hollywood Studios now that Fantasmic is scheduled every night.  While recommended days will still see lower crowds, shorter waits, and greater FASTPASS availability, it’s still more important to arrive prior to Park opening and tour efficiently in the first two hours.

The reason for the change in the Extra Magic Hours schedule for the week of April 21 – 27 is a cheerleading event at Indiana Jones Epic Stunt Spectacular at Hollywood Studios on the 27th and 28th.  The cheerleaders don’t add much to wait times, because they’re focused on their nationally recognized event, but it’s worth noting that the Indiana Jones show won’t be offered either date and you will see more people in that area of the Park through the early evening.  The Studios remains recommended on Saturday because the event really doesn’t affect wait times, unlike events like Star Wars Weekends and the Food and Wine Festival.  Otherwise, you’re looking at mostly standard recommendations, operating hours, nighttime entertainment, and Extra Magic Hours.

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I updated the October Crowd Calendar with the changes listed in this post.  There are not a lot of recommendation changes.  The major change is October 9th, where Magic Kingdom is no longer officially recommended because the hours were extended and two Electrical Parades were added.  It also follows a Monday holiday with a Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party and 7pm close that won’t be popular with those arriving over the weekend.  If I recall correctly, none of the crowd levels needed changing.

Occasionally I’ll be harassed about why the crowd levels and recommendations aren’t “updated” more often.  Generally speaking, I only change something if something has changed, and that only happens two or three times over the course of the year for each month.  Disney occasionally extends the hours at Animal Kingdom seemingly randomly, but that doesn’t happen all that often either.  I think it’s a bit of a disservice to constantly tweak the crowd levels and recommendations, ultimately irking people and causing confusion.  One would assume you’re planning your trip several months out to hone in on dining reservations and general plans.  And changing Animal Kingdom from being recommended to not recommended because the hours changed from 9am – 6pm to 9am – 7pm seems silly.  As we know, that extra hour is an excellent time to tour and is in many ways beneficial.  An 8pm close at Animal Kingdom on a Saturday in October does not mean it’s going to be more crowded than originally anticipated.  It’s simply Disney’s way of trying to make it as attractive as possible with Epcot drawing huge crowds for Food/Wine and Magic Kingdom being incredibly crowded with the long operating hours and both nighttime spectaculars.  The 8pm close is beneficial because it means people will arrive later and also clear out before the end of the night to head elsewhere.  Does the 8pm close attract more people?  Not really.  People generally visit Animal Kingdom when there isn’t anything attracting them elsewhere, since most people already consider it to be a “half day Park” with no nighttime entertainment and restaurants they’re unfamiliar with.

One day that will be more crowded than originally anticipated is October 19th at Magic Kingdom, where Disney also extended the close and added Two Electrical Parades.  I left Magic Kingdom recommended because it’s the second best day of the week to see Wishes and the Electrical Parade.  Wednesday remains a better choice and Friday’s extended close will help pull people away from that date.

Overall, October is a pleasant time to visit as temperatures cool a bit and crowds are mostly average.  It’s still hot and at times, crowded though.  It’s decidedly busier than most of January and September, but we’re not talking spring break or holiday crowd levels here.  It’s still important to arrive prior to Park opening and tour efficiently in the first couple of hours.  Feel free to post any specific questions or visit the Itinerary forum.  There isn’t a ton of action in the forums, as they’re generally a dying breed in the first place, but it’s a fun and knowledgeable group of people that probably won’t freak out at your post.  And we don’t discuss the intended tone of your post for six pages either.

I’m headed out to Hollywood Studios and the Grand Floridian Resort this afternoon as I’m still waiting on more April 2013 information.  The initial April 2013 Crowd Calendar should be available tomorrow evening.

Edit: With 100% chance of rain from 4pm – 7pm, maybe I will sit this one out.

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I’m trying to consolidate the information on the site into something that makes more sense.  For example with Yak & Yeti, all of the pertinent information is now on one page, including pictures of the restaurant, the food, the menu, the seating section, the condiments and a little overview of its strengths and weaknesses.  Just in case you’re wondering why all of these seemingly random posts are popping up underneath this one.

The two most recent posts are Big Top Souvenirs, Dumbo FASTPASS Changes and Barnstormer Added, Nearing Completion – 10/2/12 Magic Kingdom and Epcot 2012 Food and Wine Festival Menus, Pictures, Reviews, Alternatives etc. Part 3 which covers Fife & Drum Tavern, Hops and Barley, Florida Local, and the Japan Food & Wine Festival booths.

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Good news.  Disney finally updated the DisneyWebContdent.com operating schedules.  And the better news is that they were updated on July 13th and July 17th, even though they weren’t updated until today.  That seems like it means that Disney will continue to update the WebContent.com schedules first, before they do so at DisneyWorld.com.  They just neglected to actually upload the PDF files until today so they could keep the fact that evening Extra Magic Hours are being reduced to two hours beginning in January under wraps.  Note that evening Extra Magic hours now have the number two in parentheses next to the name of the hosting Park.  We like the WebContent schedules because they’re easier to read, easier to print, updated earlier, and are generally more accurate than what you’ll find at DisneyWorld.com.  They are just as “official” as anything you see at DisneyWorld.com.   As always, here are the links to the individual months:

January: http://media.disneywebcontent.com/StaticFiles/DTA-Domestic/pdf/ParkHours/WDW_Operating_Calendar_jan.pdf

February: http://media.disneywebcontent.com/StaticFiles/DTA-Domestic/pdf/ParkHours/WDW_Operating_Calendar_feb.pdf

March: http://media.disneywebcontent.com/StaticFiles/DTA-Domestic/pdf/ParkHours/WDW_Operating_Calendar_mar.pdf

April: http://media.disneywebcontent.com/StaticFiles/DTA-Domestic/pdf/ParkHours/WDW_Operating_Calendar_apr.pdf

May: http://media.disneywebcontent.com/StaticFiles/DTA-Domestic/pdf/ParkHours/WDW_Operating_Calendar_may.pdf

June: http://media.disneywebcontent.com/StaticFiles/DTA-Domestic/pdf/ParkHours/WDW_Operating_Calendar_June.pdf

July: http://media.disneywebcontent.com/StaticFiles/DTA-Domestic/pdf/ParkHours/WDW_Operating_Calendar_July.pdf

August: http://media.disneywebcontent.com/StaticFiles/DTA-Domestic/pdf/ParkHours/WDW_Operating_Calendar_aug.pdf

September: http://media.disneywebcontent.com/StaticFiles/DTA-Domestic/pdf/ParkHours/WDW_Operating_Calendar_sept.pdf

October: http://media.disneywebcontent.com/StaticFiles/DTA-Domestic/pdf/ParkHours/WDW_Operating_Calendar_oct.pdf

November: http://media.disneywebcontent.com/StaticFiles/DTA-Domestic/pdf/ParkHours/WDW_Operating_Calendar_nov.pdf

December: http://media.disneywebcontent.com/StaticFiles/DTA-Domestic/pdf/ParkHours/WDW_Operating_Calendar_dec.pdf

You always want to click “refresh” on your browser when you open up one of these PDF files because some browsers don’t update with the new version of the document if it has the same name.  Look at the bottom left hand corner of any page to verify the date that the document was last updated.  August 2012 has been updated and January/February 2013 are also available.

See this post for more information on how Disney updates its operating schedule.

I’m moving through the daily analysis for January 2013 and hope to have it online by tomorrow evening or it should be Sunday at the latest.  February will follow after that.

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Got a call last night from Grandma offering to fly me home to Seattle for Mother’s birthday on Friday.  So I’m unexpectedly flying out tomorrow and will be in Seattle through the second week in August.  With two full crowd calendars to complete, the timing isn’t ideal, but you can probably tell I’m selfish.  Anyway, that’s going to put a further delay on the daily analysis for January and February and I’m really not going to be down to business until this Saturday.  I typed up a brief rundown of my ideal Magic Kingdom morning on the forums here and I’m happy to answer any questions you have about it there or in the comments section below.

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Busy, even if it doesn’t look like it.  I updated the August 2012 Crowd Calendar.  It’s basically just the updated schedule with some additional tips mixed in.  The Cliff Notes(?) version:

1. The Land Pavilion and Character Spot should continue to stay open through 10pm.  That means you can get in line for Character Spot, Circle of Life, Living with the Land, or Soarin’ up through 10pm.  The best time to get in line for Soarin’ is 8:35pm – 9:15pm or 9:55pm.  A lot of people with FASTPASSes return after IllumiNations, causing standby waits to be longer from about 9:20pm – 10pm.  Because FASTPASS users have the priority, you want to arrive closer to the 8:30pm – 8:45pm timeframe as you’ll have very few people returning with FASTPASSes and fewer people in the standby line because everyone is up in World Showcase watching IllumiNations.  Circle of Life is so easy to see in the afternoon that you probably don’t want to take the time to see it after 9pm.  Living with the Land is a lot of fun in the dark and there’s virtually nobody in line.  Really, the greenhouse portion is a completely different experience and there aren’t a lot of opportunities to ride it in the dark because it would ordinarily stop operating at 7pm.  Character Spot also sees much shorter lines.  Ideally, I’d do:

• 8:40pm – Ride Soarin’
• 9:15pm – Ride Living with the Land
• 9:40pm – Visit Character Spot

You could also collect FASTPASSes for Soarin’ to use during the 9pm – 10pm hour.  Those are usually available around 1:30pm.  Obviously this requires skipping IllumiNations.  If you’re planning to see IllumiNations, you’re probably only going to have time to do two things.  I’d hit either Character Spot or Living with the Land right after IllumiNations and then get in line for Soarin’ after.  Soarin’ is going to take at least 25 minutes, no matter what the posted wait says, so you risk missing out on one of the other rides if you get in line for it first.

2. Through August 25, Disney added a second Fantasmic at either 10pm or 10:30pm, depending on date.  The second Fantasmic is (virtually) always less crowded than the first.  That’s particularly true in the summer, when the second Fantasmic is much later.  I recommend the Fantasmic Dining Package for the earlier show or waiting to see the second show.  There are also several 11pm Main Street Electrical Parades at Magic Kingdom added.  As usual, this Parade is significantly less crowded than the 9pm Parade because so many families leave after Wishes.  For the shortest wait and easiest experience, see the 11pm show in Frontierland or Liberty Square.  You may also be able to get good viewing spots on Main Street around 10:30pm after Wishes.

3. I added in a note on Animal Kingdom about Kali River Rapids.  Due to its low capacity and increased popularity in warm temperatures, Kali tends to have longer waits than Expedition Everest, Kilimanjaro Safaris, or any other attraction.  Due to that, I recommend riding before 10:30am, after 6pm, or with FASTPASSes collected by noon.  FASTPASS return times will likely be further out than Everest or Safaris.  You’re probably going to get soaked on Kali and with the Florida humidity, it isn’t necessarily one of the good varieties of wet.

4. Dumbo and Rapunzel are much lower priorities now that both offer FASTPASS and their respective capacities have doubled.  I recommend relying on FASTPASS for the Princesses.  Their location is somewhat inconvenient since they meet just inside the entrance.  Because you can FASTPASS them and you can’t FASTPASS the other major characters, I don’t think it’s worth the time to meet the three Town Square princesses first thing in the morning.  Rapunzel is only guaranteed to meet through 4pm, so I would plan to collect FASTPASSes around 12pm.  That will give you enough time to hit the major attractions and the FASTPASS return time will be convenient.  I don’t think that I would collect FASTPASSes for them first thing with a return time of 9:40am – 10:40am.  That’s going to be a pretty long walk from Fantasyland or Frontierland. If you’re not planning to do the Mountains, then it would be viable to collect FASTPASSes first thing, but it isn’t necessary.

Dumbo is also less of a priority with the playground, FASTPASS, and second spinner.  FASTPASS return times have been consistently 40 minutes out, making it a very easy afternoon or evening FASTPASS.  If you’d like to experience the playground, I recommend visiting around 10:30am.  This will give you enough time to hit the other attractions where wait times will build considerably before riding Dumbo.  With the playground experience, you’re looking at about 20 minutes to do Dumbo, which is too long earlier in the morning.

I’ll be going over my “Ideal Magic Kingdom Morning” in more depth over the next week or so now that things have changed considerably.  For a long time, it was easy to say, “Go straight to Rapunzel” or, “Go straight to Dumbo.”  With that no longer being necessary, we have a lot more options.

For the Princesses, you’ll want to do:

1. Princess Merida in Fairytale Garden immediately after rope drop.  She begins meeting at 9:15am.
2. Tinker Bell in Adventureland.  If you have a member willing to wait outside at Ariel, do so.  It’s easy for the group to join after Tinker Bell.  Tinker Bell begins meeting at 9:15am.
3. Ariel in Adventureland.  She begins meeting at 10am.

Ariel is the one you don’t want to mess with because she takes a ton of breaks and her waiting area is boring and hot.  If you arrive at Tinker Bell and it’s already past 9:30am, I’d ride Aladdin’s Magical Carpets a couple of times and then get in line for Ariel if you don’t have someone to wait in the Ariel line.  While Tinker Bell’s wait will be longer after 10am, the area is one of the most pleasantly air-conditioned spots on property.  Waiting 30 minutes there later in the afternoon isn’t necessarily the end of the world.  Assuming you arrive early to Merida, you should be through at 9:25am.  Expect it to be about 9:50am by the time you’re done with Tinker Bell.  Then get in line for Ariel.  The second best time to meet Tinker Bell is about two hours before close.

I just started working on the February 2013 Crowd Calendar image.  Barring any major distractions, it should be ready later this evening.  Then I’ll go back and do the January 2013 Daily Analysis and then the February 2013 Daily Analysis.

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The following is wrong, which is somewhat rare for this website.  The two things I get wrong most often are 1.) The actual date of when I visited something and 2.) I almost always call the “California Grill,” the “Contemporary Grill.”  But in this case, it isn’t necessarily my fault.  The January 2013 Extra Magic Hours schedule isn’t available externally or internally at the moment.  I polled the usual victims and it seems like the problem is 1.) The Extra Magic Hours schedule is a function of resort rates and crowds.  2.) Resort rates are a function of demand.  And since 2013 crowd projections aren’t done yet, the resort rates are also not available.

In January, the problem is that first week, where a ton of domestic school districts have until January 6th off.  The same was true last year and that first week in January was slammed.  The thought this year is that Disney shouldn’t be charging Value season pricing on a week that is naturally going to be so much busier than it has been most years prior to 2011.  And then if it’s going to be that busy, do they need to offer additional Extra Magic Hours, like they do in the summer?  The slightly-later-than usual Marathon dates on the second weekend are also a concern as to how crowds will flow over those first two weeks.  Second, international attendance is becoming more and more a driver of overall crowd levels.  We’re looking at international crowds that should surpass 25% of total attendance in 2013, with the majority of that coming from South America.  That also complicates things.

So where exactly does that leave us?  With a preliminary crowd calendar that may change quite a bit between now and when the actual Extra Magic Hours schedule comes out.  Occasionally someone will ask where the March 2013 or July 2014 crowd calendars are (examples of months that don’t yet have operating schedules available).  The answer is that I don’t put them together until the actual operating schedule is released.  I could guess what March 2013 is going to look like today (based on the data), but it would just frustrate us both because Disney always throws some curveballs in there, whether it be short hours at Hollywood Studios for a private party or an unexpected shift in nighttime entertainment/Extra Magic Hours.  In other words, we could guess as to what Easter week is going to look like operationally, but there’s really no reason to bother.  It isn’t like you can make reservations eight months in advance anyway.

[click to continue reading..]

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I spent (most of) the last ten hours updating the July Crowd Calendar.  June, July, and August are my favorite months of the year for the crowd calendar because the operating hours/entertainment are so uniform from week to week.  It’s basically just a glorified copy/paste job from one week to the next.  Don’t tell anyone though.

July remains the hottest and busiest month of the year.  Most months, there is a sweet spot at some point as far as crowds are concerned.  In January, crowds taper off substantially moving into the second week and stay relatively low through the Friday before President’s Day Weekend.  The first two weeks in December are pretty slow.  The last week in August is less crowded than the 12 weeks that came before it.  Almost all of September is “dead,” relatively speaking.  July is not one of those months.  It’s going to be busy everywhere you go, every single day, with little variation in crowds from one day to the next.

I often see people stating that following the “crowd calendars” is more important in the summer than the “off-season.”  “In reality,” the exact opposite is true.  In the summer, when operating hours and entertainment are virtually identical every day, we don’t see the great drops in crowds from non-recommended days to recommended days.  Going to the recommended Parks will still result in lower crowds and shorter waits, but we’re talking about a peak wait at it’s a small world that’s 25 minutes instead of 35 minutes.  Or at Space Mountain, a peak wait of 60 minutes instead of 100 minutes.  Fast forward to September, and it’s a small world might have a peak wait of 10 minutes on a most recommended Friday and 50 minutes on the non-recommended Saturday that follows it.  At Space Mountain, the wait at 2pm might be 20 minutes instead of 120 minutes.

I’m always amused at the people that come back from an “off-season” trip stating “it was crazy busy.”  Inevitably, they visit Magic Kingdom on the Saturday with longer hours/both nighttime spectaculars.  They go to Animal Kingdom on a Wednesday because it’s open until 6pm and has a morning Extra Magic Hour.  They visit Epcot on a Friday with evening Extra Magic Hours.  With Disney’s promotions, on-site occupancy is at least 80% year around.  That translates to the same 75,000+ people looking at the Extra Magic Hours schedule in July as will be looking in September.  And don’t get me started on people that say, “Magic Kingdom was crazy crowded but we managed to ride Space Mountain three times in a row with no wait at 4pm.”  I like to say that the difference between a “busy” and a “not busy” day at Magic Kingdom is about 30,000 people in line.  And that’s the truth.  There are areas of all four major theme parks that are virtually always congested.  The difference being the 20 minute or 120 minute wait at Big Thunder Mountain Railroad once you finally arrive.

Anyway, I was expecting Magic Kingdom to have longer hours.  If you look at the final schedule from July 2011, you’ll notice that Magic Kingdom often closes at 12am or 1am.  This year, we don’t have 1am closes on any date other than July 4th.  Midnight closes are also much rarer.  Another amusing myth is the that Disney extends operating hours because “they are expecting heavier than expected crowds.”  The opposite is actually true, more often than not.  Disney didn’t raise crowd estimates in July on virtually any date, yet the hours are still extended.  It’s not at all uncommon for Disney to lower crowd expectations and also extend operating hours.  That was particularly true on December 17 – 24 last year.  The pattern is the same every month.  We see one big update about two weeks before the start of each month.  That update always sees extended hours, additional evening entertainment, etc.  For a more comprehensive overview of how Disney sets and updates its schedule, see Figuring Out Disney World Theme Park Hours.

Ordinarily, the January 2013 Crowd Calendar image preview would follow shortly.  Unfortunately, I don’t have the Extra Magic Hours schedule yet and that’s a big part of how the recommendations are made.  I could “run simulations” via “the data,” but there’s really no point in doing so if Disney has something else planned for January.  I have never seen an operating schedule come out without the Extra Magic Hour parks listed, but there has always been some odd behavior on those Travel Agent Calendar PDF files.  I’ve seen Fantasmic scheduled every night at 0pm.  One time it was scheduled at 6.31111111111pm or some such.  I got a kick out of that one for obvious reasons.  It was about as precise of a starting time as I’ve ever seen on anything.  I should have the schedule by the end of the week and the Crowd Calendar image will follow shortly thereafter.

As far as nonsense updates are concerned, I took 370 pictures at the Pop Century resort yesterday.  Shell-On Shrimp Tandoori from Art of Animation.  We have an ice pop in Japan along with a fun look at the Japan anime exhibit.  I have a nice meal at Flying Fish to report on.  My guess is my face will be even more punchable than usual after I tell you about the Burgundy wine flight (Puligny Montrachet Domaine Chavy ’09, Chevrey-Chamberlin Vincent Girardin ’08, Chassagne-Montrachet Domaine Jean-Marc Moret ’06), crab cake, oak grilled filet, Napoleon, potato crusted red snapper, rock shrimp, Caesar salad, swordfish, and citrus cheesecake.  And more wine.  So punchable.

It will continue.

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